Illusion And Reality Of Saving

“Stop saving money, spend it“  (Die Welt on November 5, 2014)

“Low Interest Rates: People hoard more and more cash“  (FAZ on June 14, 2105)

 

In the article entitled Wie die EZB deutsche Sparer illusioniert (How the ECB illusions German savers) the German magazine Wirtschaftwoche wrote on April 27, 2015:

 

“The low interest rate is noticed primarily by the savers. By this, can the fears of the savers be vanished in respect to their pension incomes? Unfortunately, this can not be said. Those, who just look at asset values, are succumbed to a valuation illusion brought by the zero-rate-policy from the ECB. In reality, the politics of the central bank have made savers and asset owners, who wanted to secure themselves for their pension age, not richer but poorer – because it takes away the interests on their savings.“

 

As can be seen ot above graphic, the development of money values in Germany seems to rise ceaselessly into the sky. Most interestingly, the Germans hold almost half (41%) of their money assets in cash and deposits. The low interest rate policy of the ECB, which acts inflationary in the mid- to long-term, is targeting precisely on those money assets saved by the population. The nearly 5 trillion Euro of German money assets represents 44% of the total assets of 11.3 trillion Euro. A significant depreciation of the monetary values will hit the German population gravely. 

“It is not important to predict the future, but to be ready for it.“ (Perikles; Greek stateman; 490-429 BC) 

Indeed, the Germans slowly but surely start to realize that money on bank accounts is a losing deal. Inflation rates are higher than interest rates, which gap is likely to widen dramatically in the upcoming years. In comparison to one year earlier, only 22% of the German population in 2015 wants to put their money on the savings account, while 23% wants to invest in precious metals (only 7% in 2014). 

The above graph further demonstrates that real estates and equities have also gained attractiveness. However one must take into account that these markets have been rising for many years already and the risk of a correction is higher than the precious metals, which have reached a bottom; or as Thorsten Schulte likes to say:

“Silver: It can fall – It must rise!“

The higher the debts, the more one wishes for inflation as this phenomenon of automatic future money depreciation through the market reduces also the debt burden. As the paypack of the accumulated US debts have practically become irrepayable mathematically, debt cancellations or simply “die liebe Inflation” are yearned for, whereas economic-political measures are implemented to fullfill one’s wish.

 

“While the Federal Reserve is not fully transparent, what is transparent are the effects the Fed’s policy actions have on everyday people. A young couple is thrilled that interest rates are at historic lows so they take out a mortgage in order to buy the house they had always wanted. But as the Fed continues to print money in order to suppress interest rates, the price of food and heating begins to rise. Expenses rise faster than their paycheck, and they find themselves falling behind on their mortgage and eventually face foreclosure.” (Ron Paul, US Politician & Medical Doctor) 

According to a new study of the non-profit National Institute on Retirement Security in March 2015: 40 million US Americans in working age do not own any savings (45% of the US population). Those who collect savings for pension don’t have enough. The US central bank Federal Reserve found in a 2013 study on consumer finances that families with pension accounts had on average only 201,000 USD. As the general life expectancy (1970: 78 years; 2011: 83 years) has increased despite a surge in diseases (especially obesity, diabetes, hypertension), some 201,000 USD for a whole family is by far not sufficient for the pension age. 

Texas Tech University and Morningstar Investment Management published a study in 2013, which found out that under consideration of historic interest rate averages, the probability of running out of money during pension is just 6% (assuming a 30 year pension and the so-called 4% Rule, which says: “When you spend 4% of your savings every year, you will have some 30 golden years.”). However, if you calculate with actual interest rates from January 2013, the probability of a financial failure increases to 57%.

“In 1943, inflation was not in the interest of those who controlled the country. Today, in light of $18 trillion debts and $200 trillion unbacked liabilities, inflation is essential for a continuity of the ruling class. In 1943, it had advantages for the ruling classe to save; hence savings were generally promoted. Since 9/11, the government promises and supports spending and increasing debts further, to rescue the country.“ (James Quinn in December of 2014)


“When Will It Get Really Expensive Again?”


On April 2, 2015, the German newspaper Die Zeit asked 3 well-known experts why their forecasts of an increasing inflation has not yet happen. Thorsten Polleit, Chief Economist at Degussa, answered as follows: 

“If a water pipe bursts, first it drips in one of the houses’ cornern, then in another corner, and eventually all walls and ceilings, and the entire house are wet. Very similar is the economic impact on the prices of goods when increasing the money supply: Firstly, prices rises here, then there, and finally all prices have increased. The European Central Bank (ECB) has increased the Euro money supply (so-called M1, i.e. cash and short-term available bank deposits) by a staggering 51% since early 2008 – although the economic performance in the EU has shrinked by 2%. On the other side, the costs of living have ‘only’ increased by 9%. Yet this number does not show the real inflation. The inflation, which the ECB has supplied so far, does not appear in the official statistics. Three examples: Since early 2008, house prices in Germany have increased by 28%, the German stock market has grown more than 48% and the prices for 10-year German bonds have surged by 47%. Sooner or later, this ‘inventory goods prices inflation’ (‘Bestandsgüterpreisinflation’) will also be included in the consumer prices. The water pipe has bursted already, the wetness just has not reached the entire house yet. The ECB supplies an unseen glut of money. It buys government bonds on a grand scale and gives out Euros for it. One must be history forgetting or a quackish economist to not recognize that this is ruining the purchasing power of the Euro.”

Dr. Thomas Mayer, former Chief Economist of the Deutschen Bank and today Director of the Flossbach von Storch Research Institute”, gave the following answer: 

“Five years ago, I forecasted an annual inflation of 5% in five years. However, the banks did not give sufficient loans to supply such an inflation. The central banks also did not manage to advance the credit growth accordingly, although the interest rates have been lowered to levels never seen before and loaned out funds massively. What the central banks have achieved is that the prices of assets have increased stronger than would have been compatible with the restrained cyclical recovery. Instead of the 5% consumer price inflation, which I forecasted, an asset price inflation of 5.4% in Germany occurred last year. The reason for my forecast was that I expected central banks to undertake everything in their powers to prevent the collapse of the debt mountain, which had been shaken during the financial crisis. An inflation of consumer prices can reduce the value of the outstanding debts and the accrued interest payments in real terms. In contrast, asset price inflation can only support the debts at high levels as those are backed better by higher asset values. This is what the central banks have achieved. But the danger still exists. When the asset prices fall, the debt mountain can still collapse. To reduce the real debt burden, central banks continue to fight for a higher inflation. However, inflation acts just like ketchup: In the end, one has way too much on the plate as originally wanted.”

Michael Burda, Professor at the Humboldt-Universität Berlin, had the following answer: 

“Economists can not predict everything: ‘Avoid those who claim to forecast ›what‹ and as well ›when‹.’ For sure: Inflation will come slowly and when it has arrived it won’t be easy to break it down.”


 “Cash Abolishment As Ultima Ratio” – Only Cash Is King!?


The German magazine Manager Magazin explained in its article “Cash Abolishment as Ultima Ratio” (“Bargeldverbot als Ultima Ratio”), why it is so important for the government to gradually abolish cash money: 

“Alone in 2007, the global debts grew by nearly 50 trillion US Dollar. This debt mountain would have collapsed already if the interest rates would not have been lowered increasingly. Banks and central banks habe done everything to help the debtors carrying their burden. By that way, they stabilize the debt tower at the bottom, however support the simultaneous build-up of more floors. Today, money can not be cheap enough... What would be required is a compensation of supply and demand for capital through federal economic stimulus plans and negative interest rates. The latter would make investments more attractive, which is the hope. As a consequence, Summers was one of the first to demand the abolishment of cash. Only that would prevent savers from escaping of its own expropriation.”

The German magazine Der Spiegel reported on May 16, 2015, about the postulation from the economist and “Wirtschaftsweisen”, Peter Bofinger, to forbid coins and bank notes as these are an “anachronism” (out-of-time):

“If these [coins and notes] are gone, the black markets for illicit employment and drugs could be dried off. Furthermore, the central banks would have it easier to enforce their monetary policies. The economics teaching professor, who lives in Würzburg, demanded from the federal government, to promote on an international level for the abolishment of cash... The former US finance minister and economist, Larry Summers, already pleaded for the end of cash money. Likewise US economist Kenneth Rogoff who also arguments that the interest rates from central banks have less impact if banks and consumers hoard cash instead of keeping money on account. However, critics warn that such debates are solely distracting from the real problems of the current monetary policy.” 

On May 15, 2015, the newspaper Neutrale Zeitung wrote:

“Denmark wants to advance the restriction on cash: With the planned law, smaller companies like gas stations, retailer and restaurants would not be legally binded to accept cash. There is one exception: Supermarkets must continue to accept bank notes. The government explains the approach with the high security costs which are caused by cash circulation. The costs for the counting of revenues, the storage in vaults over night and the pick-up by security firms are not bearable anymore for small shops. Die restriction on cash is part of a reform package, which should stimulate the nation’s economy, whereas it still needs approval from the Danish parliament. Yet it is expected that the bill pass without problems... With this approach, Denmark follows a number of countries, which also already undertook concrete measures against the use of cash: France is restricting its cash conditions drastically with a new law starting this summer. Since quite some time already, Sweden reduces cash transactions increasingly. In Greece, a restriction is also being discussed in light of the crisis; e.g. invoices exceeding 70 Euro should only be paid by cheque or credit card. Since introduction of low interest rates, there exist numerous pre-thinkers/masterminds (“Vordenker”) who think that a drastic restriction on cash is probable, including Kenneth Rogoff from the Harvard University and Willem Buiter, Chief Economist at Citigroup, who pleads for issueing only 5 Dollar bills. The German Baader Bank also expects an abolishement of cash. The central banks are also discussing an abolishment.  Yet the UBS thinks that forbidding cash will be difficult. So far it is unclear, which countries will follow this example and implement restrictions on the free and private usage of money by the people. Last November, the Swiss National Council has declined any laws and regulations to combat money laundering with cash.”


“When the tough gets going, the powerful undertake drastic measures. On April 5, 1933, US President Franklin D. Roosevelt signed the Executive Order 6102, which forbid the private gold ownership in the US starting May 1, 1933. Anyone owning more than 5 ounces of gold was forced to hand it out to federal collection places. The compensation was little, especially when considering the subsequent depreciation of the US Dollar against gold... Today it is getting tough and serious again. As if another proof was necessary that governments and central banks worldwide are at their wits‘ end with the debt crisis. Here it is: The cash abolishment is being demanded openly. Gold does not play any role anymore in today‘s monetary system. Cash however still offers the possibility to escape from the monetary system, which is mainly controlled by banks.“ (Manager Magazin on May 13, 2015)


Building Assets


“I have never understood why it is called greed to preserve one’s own money, whereas it is not greed to take possession of other people’s money.” (Thomas Sowell; US Economist)

 

 

The irregular distribution of German assets (after tax) can be seen on the graph to the left:  

• Around 65% of the Germans own less than 17,000 Euro in assets. 
• Around 25% of the Germans own more than 100,000 Euro. 
• Around 10% of the Germans own more than 217,000 Euro. 
• Around 1% of the Germans owns more than 817,000 Euro. 

 

In which group do you find yourself today? 

In which group would you like to be in future? 

 

The reason for the increasing poverty in Germany is not only due to badly paid jobs but mainly due to loss of purchasing power of the Euro thanks to inflation. 

 

The question everyone must ask: Can my annual salary raise keep pace with the increase of living expenses? 

 

Why should I buil up my own assets and wealth?

1. Because you know that you are responsible for your financial security in future yourself.
2. Because you rather take responsibility for yourself and your family.  
3. Because you will reach your goals easier, faster and cheaper.
4. Because a higher living standard for yourself is desirable.
5. Because your real salary increases will not keep up with increases in costs of living and thus you becoming increasingly poor.  
6. Because you feel better every day when living without financial fears.  
7. Elementum Deutschland offers you very good potential earnings as an Echte Werte Consultant.


Asset Optimization And Protection


“Actually, it is quite perverted: The welfare state does not produce social security but   insecurity because it is not being recommended to do prevention and save money, to accumulate a capital pillow, but the money is being taken from us and directly given to someone else. This means we are going away from saving, away from investing and all the positive effects which can be connected to such - basically, we are permanently living on the expense of the next one.” (Prof. Dr. Christian Pieter Hoffmann, Assistant Professor at the Institut für Medien und Kommunikationsmanagement of the Universität St. Gallen; Source) 


Today, one talks about negative interest rates, real losses and expropriation - thanks to the low interest rate policy in most of the countries worldwide which bring about real negative rates. This trend should just have started and gain traction in the not too distant future. 

Why should I optimize and protect my assets?

  • The nominal interest rates at banks and insurance companies are too low, being the reason why a real loss is generated. This means that your assets have less and less purchasing power, whereas this will result in a dramatic outcome when inflation picks up in future (a self-proclaimed goal from the ECB and other central banks worldwide).
  • The situation in the global financial markets has never before been so bad and dangerous as today - Trend: Upwards! 
  • Therefore, it is better to become an owner of real values instead of being a creditor of unbacked paper values.
  • Asset risks can be minimized ideally by way of diversifying your assets and investing into real values. 
  • Historically, the so-called “Three-Spokes-Rule“ is the most secure and best practice investment strategy, or as Prof. Bocker sums up: “The only investment strategy, which has never failed during the last centuries.“  

The recommendation (see interview with Prof. Dr. Bocker here): Diversification of all assets into 3 equal parts: 
1.) 33% in gold/silver

2.)  33% in real estates, wood, oil, gas
3.) 33% in equities, funds and stocks (mainly commodities), as well as cash


Silver: The Life Insurance In Case of Cash's Death


“Why it‘s all about freedom with the abolishment of cash“ (Roland Tichy in Bild am Sonntag on June 8, 2015) 

 

“Interview with monetary professor: The people must get used to it: The cash abolishment is coming for sure“ (Focus Magazin on June 4, 2015) 

“Comes now total supervision? That's why the fear of the end of cash is totally justifiedt“ (Focus Magazin on June 3, 2015)

 

Bloomberg is just one of many influential media outlets increasingly promoting a negative sentiment towards cash; as per its article ”The Death of Cash” on April 23, 2015, discussing an abolishment of cash money:  

 

“Now comes the interesting part. There are signs of an innovation war over negative interest rates. There’s a surge of creativity around ways to drive interest rates deeper into negative territory, possibly by abolishing cash or making it depreciable. And there’s a countersurge around how to prevent rates from going more deeply negative, by making cash even more central and useful than it is now. As this new world takes shape, cash becomes pivotal... like chemotherapy, negative interest rates are a harsh medicine. It’s disorienting when people are paid to borrow and charged to save. It’s disorienting when people are paid to borrow and charged to save. “Over time, market disequilibria are dangerous,” G+ Economics Chief Economist Lena Komileva wrote to clients on April 21. Which side of the debate you fall on probably comes down to how much you trust government. On one side, there’s an argument to be made that cash has become what John Maynard Keynes once called gold: a barbarous relic. It thwarts monetary policy and makes life easy for criminals and tax evaders... On the other side, if you’re afraid that central banks are in a war against savers, or that the government will try to control your financial affairs, cash is your best defense. Taking it away “is a prescription for revolution,” Cecchetti says.”


In France, cash payments exceeding 1,000 EUR (formerly 3,000 EUR) are not allowed anymore, while foreign exchange of more than 1,000 EUR (formerly 8,000 EUR) require the identification with a ID card. In Italy, cash payment of more than 1,000 EUR (formerly 2,500 EUR) are not allowed anymore, while the limit in Spain has been lowered to 2,500 EUR in Spain. In Russia, anonymous transaction can only be settled in cash of not exceeding 10,000 USD. The official reasonings: Suppression of terrorism and other criminal activities.

Instead of hoarding cash, it is recommendable to change into the historic safest form of money: Silver; however before a potentially complete abolishment of cash comes and/or before inflation picks up. 

 
“Economist Bofinger demands the end of cash“  (Spiegel on May 16, 2015) 
“The dispute of the wise“ (Handelsblatt on May 18, 2015) 
“Who prohibits cash must demand fully legal tender ("Vollgeld") (Manager Magazin on May 19, 2015) 
“Sick Money System“ (Wirtschaftswoche on May 20, 2015)

 
Conclusion

The German TV station hr broadcasted a movie in March 2015 about the rescue of the Euro. To quote beginning of the 34th minute: ‘You are all incapable to calculate’, we hear loudly coming from the 43rd floor of the ECB. Victor Constancio, ECB director, stated relatively bluntly: “I surely understand that people are comparing. The interest rates on savings were at 2.6% in 2007, before the crisis – and now these are at 0.5%. However, it is really like that: In 2007, when savings rates were at 2.6%, inflation was also at 2.6%. The gives really zero. Today, inflation in Germany runs at 0.5% and the interest on savings is also at 0.5%  –  which makes a real zero. It is the same as before the crisis.”


“More and more banks dont pay anything anymore”, says Sigrid Herbst from FMH Finanzberatung. Since quite some time now, savers will not become rich if they park money on bank accounts. Meanwhile, many banks do not give any interest at all for savings. “Not few banks have stopped offering daily or fixed interests on savings”, says Herbst. The reason: The ECB. The Handelsblatt summed up nicely on April 27, 2015:

“Banks have become less dependent on clients’ savings and are not wasting efforts here no longer as they are getting enough cheap money through the European Central Bank, which pumps billions of Euro into the market with its bond purchase program. Therefore, investors should look where they can preserve their capital in real terms, thus after deduction of inflation (currently 0.3%). In general, investors should not park too much money as one can not build up assets for the long-term with such yields.” 

 

With such yields, inflation will bring you real losses. With an increase in inflation, the net loss with cash holdings will reach dramatic extents. No wonder a lot of funds flow from bank accounts into popular stock markets like the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, or Dax, as these appear to be rising  ad infinitum into the sky. Same applies to the bond markets. 


However, more and more people are convinced that silver is currently a better investment and savings product than popular stock markets.

Moreover, every cosmopolitan should be clear by now that the western media, hand in hand with ministers and self-proclaimed economic experts (“Wirtschaftsweisen”), are increasingly talking about the abolishment of cash. Protect yourself, with physical silver, namely now (and not when cash has disappeared and/or the price has risen strongly again). And when you decide in favor of silver, please do so correctly respectively in the same effective manner as the big guys and experts are doing (keywords: quantity discounts, storage, availability, resale).

One of the biggest discounts, which you can take advantage of today, is thanks to the manipulation of interest rates, fiat currencies and currency metals (especially gold/silver). Don’t be intimidated by that unfair practice, but au contraire: Carpe diem! Take advantage of such truly opportune times – just like others are doing, too. Just always keep the following words from Professor Bocker at the back your mind: 

 

“In the long run, nothing and nobody is stronger than the market. The deeper you push a ball under water, the higher it will skyrocket.”


“The Germans seem to be a tragic nation: They work hard, accept salary losses to secure workplace and export, earn well, save much – yet become increasingly poorer. This is the result when relying on government and politicians, which on the one hand promise opulent social benefits, but eventually just supply dry bread – at best. (...) The nation with the biggest economy in Europe fears mass poverty at old age – eventhough the German economy is in a hurry from one success to the other. But just without the Germans.“ Roland Tichy (Chief Editor, in Wirtschaftswoche on November 23, 2013) 

“When I look at the German history of the last hundred years, I don‘t know if I should be more afraid of criminals or of the government.“ (Ranga Yogeshwar in FAZ in July 2013) 

 

“Bank of America & Merril Lynch warns: Markets Are in a ‘Twilight Zone‘ and It‘s Time to Hold More Cash and Gold.“ (Bloomberg on May 18, 2015) 

The entire Elementum team around the family enterprises of Pravica and Luitz have developed a truly innovative and one-of-a-kind savings plan based on real values - and which offers a whole array of discounts not only to large institutional investors but as well smaller private investors. The Elementum team, already represented in 6 countries, would be delighted to welcome you as a new Elementum client. Being an Elementum client represents the opportunity to be in exclusive contact with the competent and sympathic team around Professor Bocker and Thorsten Schulte - in order to be on your side during an engagement with silver. Contact us! We are here for you.  

We would be delighted to have the opportunity to have a personal conversation with you to analyze the individual needs for your financial future. Write or call us to make an appointment as you wish:Elementum Deutschland GmbH, Poststrasse 7, 71063 Sindelfingen, Phone: +49 7031 700856; and Rosenweg 1, 69181 Leimen, Germany; Phone: +49 6224 98971120; Email: info@elementum.de, www.elementum.de

Elementum International AG is specialized exclusively in the storage of precious metals in Switzerland and accordingly does not offer any advice or trading in precious metals or other goods. Please contact the national Elementum companies for advice on precious metal trading and subsequent storage at the St. Gotthard high-security vaulting facility.